Pakistan’s Water Crisis: BCPR Report Calls for Urgent Reforms and Strategic Action
Amid growing concerns over India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and Pakistan’s worsening water management challenges, the BNU Center for Policy Research (BCPR), a Lahore-based think tank, has released a detailed report titled “Pakistan’s Water Crisis: The Way Forward.” The report outlines practical recommendations to address what it describes as an impending national water emergency.
To tackle the issue, BCPR established the Task Force on Diplomacy and Politics on Water in October 2025. The panel brought together diplomats, water experts, legal specialists, and academics to examine a crisis that extends beyond technical concerns and touches on diplomacy, politics, and national security. The formation of the Task Force came at a particularly significant moment.
Earlier, on April 23, 2025, India announced that it was placing the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, located in Indian-administered Kashmir. New Delhi stated that the suspension would remain effective until Pakistan demonstrated a credible and permanent end to support for cross-border terrorism.
For Pakistan, which relies on the Indus River system for nearly 90 percent of its agricultural water requirements, the decision was viewed as more than a diplomatic dispute. It was seen as a signal that India was prepared to use water resources as leverage, threatening a resource vital to Pakistan’s economy and population.
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 under the auspices of the World Bank, allocated the six rivers of the Indus Basin between the two countries. India gained control over the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—while Pakistan retained unrestricted access to the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. For more than six decades, the agreement survived wars, political upheavals, and periods of intense tension between the two neighbours.
According to the report, India’s 2025 move was not an isolated action but rather the latest step in a longer-term strategy involving the development of upstream infrastructure, weakening of treaty mechanisms, and repeated calls to revise or replace the existing agreement.
The Task Force was led by respected experts. Dr. Moeed W. Yusuf, Vice Chancellor of BNU, served as chairperson. Ambassador Mansoor Ahmad Khan, Director of BCPR and a seasoned diplomat, acted as convener, while Dr. Zainab Ahmed, Deputy Director of BCPR, served as secretary.
Other members included former caretaker Foreign Minister and Foreign Secretary Ambassador Jalil Abbas Jilani, legal specialists Feisal Naqvi and Ali Sultan, as well as prominent hydrologists and scholars specializing in water governance. The panel was tasked with assessing Pakistan’s legal and diplomatic options regarding the treaty while also recommending reforms to strengthen the country’s water sector.
A Strong Legal Position, but Limited Action
The report highlights what it considers a major weakness in Pakistan’s response to the treaty dispute. Since April 2025, Pakistan has not pursued a sufficiently coordinated or proactive international campaign regarding the suspension of the treaty.
According to the Task Force, Pakistan possesses a solid legal argument but has failed to effectively promote its position on the global stage. The report warns that opportunities to build international support may diminish if decisive action is delayed.
It recommends leveraging Pakistan’s improving relations with influential countries, particularly the United States and China, to encourage international pressure on India and seek a resolution within the framework of the treaty.
Internal Water Challenges
While the treaty dispute receives significant attention, the report devotes equal focus to Pakistan’s domestic water management problems, which it considers equally serious and more immediately solvable.
Pakistan receives an average annual river inflow of approximately 134 million acre-feet, with nearly 95 percent originating from the western rivers. By most technical assessments, the country’s water supply is not inherently inadequate. Instead, the report argues that the real challenge lies in poor governance and inefficient management.
Among the issues identified are outdated systems for measuring water usage, inadequate sharing of data between provinces, and the lack of meaningful updates to the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord that governs water distribution across the country.
The report also points to excessive groundwater extraction with minimal regulation, continued cultivation of water-intensive crops in drought-prone regions, and the absence of effective incentives encouraging conservation among farmers, industries, and households.
To address these concerns, the Task Force proposes extensive reforms, including the creation of a national authority to oversee both technical and diplomatic water matters, modernization of monitoring and data systems, stronger groundwater regulations, crop diversification policies supported by pricing reforms, and a structured dialogue among provinces to resolve longstanding disputes over water allocation.
A Roadmap for the Future
The recommendations are divided into three broad categories. Institutionally, the report calls for the appointment of a dedicated national water focal person capable of addressing technical, legal, and diplomatic dimensions simultaneously. It stresses that treaty-related challenges and domestic reforms should be pursued together rather than treated as separate issues.
Regarding the Indus Waters Treaty, the Task Force supports efforts to engage India in dialogue aimed at a peaceful resolution. Legally, it recommends pursuing a new Court of Arbitration specifically to determine the legality of India’s decision to suspend the treaty, separate from existing proceedings that India disputes.
The report further advises Pakistan to assemble a team of international legal experts within three months, strengthen the office of the Indus Waters Commissioner, and intensify diplomatic efforts through forums such as the United Nations Security Council, the UN General Assembly, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
China is identified as a potentially important diplomatic partner. Given its role in the Indus Basin and its influence in the region, the report suggests that Beijing could help facilitate broader discussions on regional water cooperation.
At the same time, Pakistan’s improved international standing following developments in May 2025, along with its growing engagement with Washington during a period of strained US-India relations, is viewed as an opportunity that should be utilized before geopolitical circumstances change.
Conclusion
The report delivers a message of urgency while remaining cautiously optimistic. It argues that Pakistan possesses a strong legal foundation, meaningful diplomatic opportunities, and a water system that, despite serious shortcomings, can still be improved.
According to the Task Force, the country’s greatest obstacles are not a lack of resources but the absence of coordinated leadership, political commitment, and a clear strategy. The report seeks to provide a framework for all three while warning that time is running short to address the crisis effectively.
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